Capital Lab for Edge Investing
Capital Lab for Edge Investing
Okay, let's talk Social Security. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is touting some impressive gains, according to Commissioner Bisignano's letter to Congress. Faster payments, shorter wait times, a shrinking disability claims backlog—sounds like a government agency actually firing on all cylinders. But before we break out the champagne, let’s crack open the numbers and see what they really tell us.
The claim that in-office wait times are down almost 27% is eye-catching. Twenty-two minutes from thirty? That's real progress, assuming the data is solid. Bisignano attributes this to changes in field office phone systems, allowing nearly 30% of calls to be handled instantaneously through technology. But here's where my skepticism kicks in. What kind of "technology" are we talking about? Are these just automated menus that frustrate people into hanging up, or are they genuinely helpful? I'd like to see a breakdown of call resolution rates after these "instantaneous" interactions.
And what about the disability claims backlog? It's down from a peak of 1.26 million in June 2024 to 865,000 (a level not seen since 2022). That's a significant drop, no doubt, but still a massive number. The initial claim average processing time is down 13% to 209 days. While faster, 209 days is still over six months to wait for a decision that can drastically impact someone's life. The SSA deserves credit for the improvement, but let's not pretend this is a solved problem.
The devil, as always, is in the details. What constitutes a "pending claim"? Are they counting claims that are actively being processed, or are they including applications that are missing key information and stuck in limbo? A clearer definition would give us a better picture of the true backlog situation.
Bisignano also highlighted the upgrade to the SSA’s online portal, "my Social Security," boasting 24/7 access after fixing a scheduled downtime of 29 hours a week. This is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Scheduled downtime of 29 hours a week for a major government service? That's not just inconvenient; it's practically negligent. What was the explanation for this? Was it outdated infrastructure, poor management, or something else entirely? The letter doesn't say. While restoring 24/7 access is a welcome change, the fact that it was allowed to degrade so severely in the first place raises serious questions about oversight.
The SSA also sent out 3.1 million payments totaling over $17 billion, related to the Social Security Fairness Act (SSFA), five months ahead of schedule. This is good news, especially for those teachers, firefighters, police officers, and federal employees who had their retirement benefits limited. But let's be clear: this was correcting a previous injustice. It’s less a new initiative and more a necessary fix, and while the speed of delivery is commendable, the focus should be on preventing such inequities from arising in the first place. According to recent reports, Social Security Issues Update on 2025 Changes, further adjustments are expected in the coming year.
The 2.8 percent cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2026, translating to roughly $56 more per month for the average retiree, is another point to consider. While any increase is helpful, let's be honest: $56 a month won't go very far in today's economy. It's a band-aid, not a solution, especially when inflation continues to erode purchasing power.
The SSA's report paints a rosy picture of progress, and on the surface, some of the numbers are indeed encouraging. But a closer look reveals that many of these "improvements" are simply correcting past deficiencies or offering modest relief in the face of larger economic challenges. The key question is: are these changes truly systemic, or are they temporary fixes designed to generate positive headlines? Are they sustainable? I need more data, more transparency, and a lot less self-congratulation before I'm ready to declare victory.